Since I am a bundle of pre-existing conditions, I feel like I have a great big
stake in the success of Obamacare. What scares me is that the Supreme Court will
declare Obamacare unconstitutional because it places too much of a burden on
state governments trying to administer Medicaid. I fear that the Supreme Court
will find large parts of both Obamacare and Medicare unconstitutional, as an
overreach of enumerated powers and the Commerce Clause.
I find it hard to
believe that the Supreme Court is going to strike down Obamacare simply on the
basis of the individual mandate. I can't believe the Supreme Court would do all
that work on striking down Obamacare only to leave the door open for true
"single payer" socialized medicine the next time the Democrats controls Congress
and the Presidency.
My wishful thinking is that the Supreme Court will
rest on this politically unpopular, but Constitutionally defensible argument
(from a conservative standpoint) --- Romneycare good -- Obamacare bad.
My
biggest fear is that this Supreme Court will throw themselves in the political
thicket in a major way. The Court would say that Obamacare and Medicare and
Medicaid are basically unconstituional. They would then go on to say that the
only way to wind down the government's involvement in health insurance is to
adopt the Ryan Plan, which grandfathers in healthcare for the older, whiter
population, and leaves the younger hispanic and asian populations to pay for
something that they will never get. I feel so cynical writing all this. But I
just wanted to be on the record that the possibility exists that the Supreme
Court will issue another Dred Scott like decision on Monday, and blow
away decades and decades of how we think things work.
From what I am
reading other people engaged in wishful thinking hope that either (a) Justice
Kennedy will uphold Obamacare rather than blow up all the prior precedent, or
(b) Chief Justice Roberts will uphold Obamacare under the more cynical
calculation that at the end of the day no one in Washington really wants more
power to go to the states. Chief Justice Roberts may also surprise us and admit
that Obamacare is a political question, best left for the political branches to
decide.
